A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."